2026 Ocean Outlook
6 Key Themes for the Year Ahead
Macro outlook: The exceptional factors disrupting ocean container shipping to stabilize
Improved GDP growth projections for US and EU
"With big questions over consumer spending in the US in 2026, many shippers will have uncertainties over the volumes of goods they will be importing.
"It is vital shippers retain flexibility in freight contracts to allow them to increase or decrease volumes as required while also managing freight spend effectively."
Geopolitics and the unknown: Trade will remain at the center of conflict
Tariffs and trade wars will continue to wreak havoc in 2026
"It is easy to feel like a kite in a storm when the geo-political wars are raging, but with data and intelligence, shippers can make the right decisions at the right time to protect supply chains and minimize the financial damage."
Demand: shifting global trade patterns
Forecast global container shipping growth of 3% in 2026
"Many shippers adopted a China+1 strategy following escalation of the US-China trade war during Trump's first term in office. The sweeping global tariffs of 2025 may have undermined this strategy to an extent, but it remains the case that shippers must still strive for as much flexibility in supply chains as possible."
Demand: Ongoing impact of Red Sea conflict
Diversions continue to provide freight rate protection for carriers
"There may not be an immediate prospect of a large-scale return to the Red Sea in 2026, but shippers should be pushing carriers for improved transparency during negotiations for the next contract.
There is still justification for a Red Sea surcharge on trades directly and operationally impacted by diversions, but it should still be singled-out and lower in 2026."
Supply: Record orderbook for new containerships
More than 10m TEU on order for future delivery and fleet growth of 3.6% in 2026.
"There is a record orderbook for new ships which will pile on the pressure for carriers in 2026, 2027 and 2028 and further play into the hands of shippers who will point to overcapacity in the market to negotiate more competitive freight contracts."
Changing container shipping networks: Differing performance across carriers
Gemini leads the way on reliability
"Carriers will be hunting for volumes to fill their ships in 2026 and the competition will be fierce given the overcapacity in the market. Carriers will need to bring more to the table than lower freight rates - shippers will be looking for better reliability performance and network coverage for their chosen service provider."