2. Geopolitics and the unknown: Trade will remain at the center of conflict
Summary:
- Shippers must understand how USTR port fees are passed on by carriers in 2026.
- Vital infrastructure likely to be at the heart of the trade power struggles in 2026 as China and the US look to control key global ports.
- New trade alliances - China invites India, Russia and North Korea to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
- Further US tariffs to come into effect in 2026.
- Geo-political turmoil will continue with the potential for major new events / conflicts.
Factors which could positively or adversely impact container shipping in 2026:
1. USTR Port Fees
USTR port fees will start to be phased in from mid-October targeting China-built ships and Chinese operators.
Most carriers have adjusted services in response and are already swapping out China-built vessels on services to the US to reduce exposure.
For example, Gemini shipping alliance is swapping out a total of 60 000 TEU across six China-built vessels on the US2 service, which calls at both the US East Coast and US West Coast. On the other hand, COSCO (and OOCL) are unable to completely avoid the fees due to them being Chinese operators.
Uncertainty surrounds the situation and shippers should keep a watchful eye on how these fees are passed on by carriers in 2026. The uncertainty will increase further when full implications of China's retaliation to the port fees are fully known.
Revision of USTR port fees from 14 Oct 2025:
- Chinese operators will face fee regardless of whether the ship is built based on percentage of active fleet and orderbook.
- Non-Chinese operators using Chinese built ships either NT or per container, whichever higher.
- Charged up to 5 times per year per ship.
- Separate scheme: SHIPS of America Act for fees based on active fleet and orderbook, on top of USTR fee.
2. Ownership and control of global ports
Trade is at the forefront of geopolitical conflict and control of vital infrastructure is part of this. For example, the US sees Chinese investments in global ports as a threat to its national security.
This could play out most clearly in the Panama Canal in 2026 as the US tries to gain greater control over the critical trade route. At the heart of this power struggle is a deal for a consortium including MSC and Blackrock to acquire the port operations at the Panama Canal from Hong-Kong based CK Hutchison Holdings Limited (however, Financial Times reported in September the deal is taking longer than expected).
3. Global trade alliances
The trade war between the US and China is the headline story but within this unfolding drama are various sub-plots that will make life more complicated for shippers in 2026.
The US trade policy seeks to defend its position as a world leader in response to what are deemed to be threats to national security.
In Asia, alliances are being forged/strengthened to counter the US trade policy. One clear example being China inviting India, Russia and North Korea to the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization).
SCO has been in existence for 24 years, but is perhaps now more relevant than ever.
4. Legal case over US tariffs
The hearing into the legality of Trump's sweeping tariffs targeting nations will take place before the end of the year and potentially have a big impact for importers and exporters. The case will determine whether President Trump exceeded his powers in the way he introduced these tariffs.
One potential impact is shippers holding back some volume until a ruling is reached. If the ruling is that Trump did exceed his powers, it could also mean shippers are able to claim back money spent on importing costs due to tariffs that are deemed illegal.
The case is set to be heard in the first week of November 2025.
It is important to note this hearing does not cover all tariffs introduced in 2025 and, if the ruling goes against Trump, it is likely the US Government will identify alternative ways to introduce effectively the same tariffs.
5. Outstanding US trade issues
The US agreed various trade deals during 2025 following the announcement of sweeping tariffs in April, but there are uncertainties on their impact in 2026.
Watch out for US trade tactics with India, Mexico and Canada. The US focus is China, but this trade war is played out on a global scale and will have collateral damage.
It is not just nations of origin that determine tariff impact, the range of products to be hit by the tariffs is also a massive cause for uncertainty and worry.
For 2026, new tariffs will impact US imports of, among other goods, robotics and industrial machinery, personal protective equipment (PPE), medical consumables, and medical equipment (including devices).
Discretionary Presidential Orders can also throw a tariff curveball in 2026. For example, at the end of September, a social media post from President Trump announced plans for +25% tariffs on heavy trucks, +50% on kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities, +30% on upholstered furniture and up to +100% on pharmaceuticals.
Tariffs may be implemented in different ways, such as Discretionary Presidential Orders, or within different pieces of legislation – but the end result is they wreak the same havoc. Of course, the impact will be felt by businesses in different ways across sectors.
However, where there is risk, there is opportunity. For example, freight forwarders could look at the tariff regime as a business opportunity to act as customs agents for shippers.
6. The unknown
In the Xeneta Ocean Outlook 2025 it was stated clearly that a forecast is based on known factors and that the geo-political turmoil could change the game significantly. This has proved to be the case with a Trump presidency throwing fuel on the US-China trade war.
The same caveats must be applied for 2026. Could we see a military escalation in the Taiwan Strait? Will the situation in the Middle East deteriorate or improve? No one can answer these questions with certainty, what is important for shippers in 2026 is that they have the data and intelligence to remain agile and make the right decision at the right time.
"The US-China power struggle will rage on in 2026 and trade will once again be weaponized. Shippers will be caught in the middle, whether that is the financial implications of tariffs between the US and China or disruption caused by the US and China fighting over maritime infrastructure.
"The implications will not be restricted to shipping goods between the US and China because nations across the globe are also hit by higher tariffs.
"Shippers must learn from recent years and be ready to act decisively to protect supply chains. It is easy to feel like a kite in a storm when the geo-political wars are raging, but with data and intelligence, shippers can make the right decisions at the right time to protect supply chains and minimize the financial damage."
Emily Stausbøll
Senior Shipping Analyst, Xeneta