1. Demand
Demand in the first seven months of 2024 grew 12% year-on-year, with the whole year’s demand on track for double-digit growth.
Global air cargo demand grew 12% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2024. This came as a surprise compared to October 2023 when forecasts suggested growth of between 1-2%, with inventory destocking, high inflation and elevated interest rates dampening consumer demand and global trade.
The demand surge in the first seven months of 2024 was a result of fast-rising cross-border e-commerce demand from Asia; disruptions in ocean shipping disruptions due to the Red Sea crisis; a broader general cargo demand increase driven by high-tech semiconductors for high-performance computing and the AI boom; and a low comparison base from last year.
While the specific circumstances of the Red Sea conflict were not known back in October, Xeneta’s Outlook 2024 did predict a major black swan event could be on the horizon, and so it proved.
What was perhaps not fully appreciated when the Xeneta Outlook 2024 was published was the extraordinary growth in e-commerce demand. Specifically, it has become more important than ever to understand not only the type of products consumers are buying but where they are buying them.
For example, while consumer spending in US and Europe is not showing signs of significant growth, the fact more goods are being bought on cross-border e-commerce platforms places additional demand on air cargo.
If the strong demand seen in the first seven months of 2024 continues, 2024 will see air cargo demand for the full year on track for double-digit growth.