2. Supply

As anticipated, global air cargo supply growth slowed in 2024 after mostly recovering to pre-pandemic levels in late 2023 due to the passenger network recovery.

In the first seven months of 2024, global air cargo supply grew 4%, especially from the outbound Northeast Asia market. However, growth momentum slowed from 7% year-on-year in January to just 2% in July.

In the Xeneta Outlook 2024 (published in October 2023), supply was expected to increase by 2-4%. The fact supply has increased broadly in line with forecasts while demand has surpassed expectations so dramatically clearly demonstrates why upward pressure on rates has been so strong in 2024.

With widebody aircraft deliveries slowing due to supply chain issues and conversion capacity constraints, growth momentum will likely be muted for the rest of 2024, aligning with the 2-4% supply growth expected for the full year 2024.