Looking ahead
While no-one has a crystal ball, here are the disruptions that could hit shipping next, as well as primary challenges of shippers and freight forwarders in 2024.
The next disruption
1. The US – with presidential elections coming up in November and Donald Trump already floating the idea of 60% tariffs on imports from China and 10% tariffs on imports from anywhere else, we might see some shippers starting to frontload their imports of goods to ensure delivery before tariff deadlines, which would have a knock on impact to rates and capacity on the US bound trades.
2. China and Taiwan – there is the potential for tensions rising in this region, and if they do, shippers should be prepared for the knock-on effect to exports within the region – with intra Far East volumes already very high, but also exports out of the region too, and the ripple effect on global supply chains more generally.
3. Nearshoring – with more volumes moving away from China towards South East Asia (including the Indian sub-continent, Mexico and closer to Europe), there is the potential for disruptions whilst the infrastructure needed to support nearshoring or reshoring activity is built. Once established, we should expect to see a ramping up of capacity and production through these corridors.
4. Who knows - back in October, Patrik Berglund warned that the next Black Swan event may only be around the corner. That remains true, especially while the world continues to be in a precarious position geo-politically. Data and insight is your best way to be ready if/when disruption does happen and make the best decision for your business at the right time.
Primary challenges of shippers and freight forwarders in 2024
While Xeneta originally predicted that de-risking supply chains would feature as the primary concern, results showed that managing freight spend was a clear challenge for all shippers and freight forwarders in 2024.
April's State of the Ocean Webinar hosts Peter Sand and Emily Stausbøll were unsurprised, with Sand commenting:
“In essence isn’t that what it’s all about? It’s the one thing that is the mother of all that has to do with maritime supply chains and logistics – freight spend and the disruption that may or may not come about.”