2025 Ocean Outlook

6 Key Themes for the Year Ahead

Macro outlook: Growth in global container volumes to slow slightly after record-breaking 2024

Demand to grow by 3% in 2025

“Macro-economic developments set the overall direction for container shipping demand but shippers need to understand market nuances.”

Impact of Red Sea conflict on TEU-mile demand

Partial return to Red Sea would see TEU-mile demand change of between +3% and -11%

“A large-scale return to the Red Sea seems inconceivable at present, but a partial return may be possible at some point in 2025.”

Capacity: Record fleet growth to slow in 2025

Fleet growth to slow to 4.5% in 2025

“Carriers have taken very different approaches to fleet in 2025, so there will inevitably be some winners and some losers depending how the market develops.”

Alliances: Choosing the right service provider just got more complicated

Major changes to Alliances in 2025

“Keep your options open, do not be afraid to challenge carriers and seek assurances they can deliver what they are promising.”

Disruption: List of risks to manage keeps getting longer

Red Sea will continue to impact supply chains

“Smart shippers have learned lessons from the pandemic and are taking a new data-driven approach to freight procurement and supply chain risk management.”

Decarbonization & environmental regulation

EU ETS ramps up in 2025 to cover 70% of CO2

“Shippers must understand the carbon emissions strategy of their service provider and not be afraid to question any surcharge that is added to their all-in freight rate.”