1. Macro outlook: The exceptional factors disrupting ocean container shipping to stabilize
Summary:
- Advanced economies, such as US and EU, to see better GDP growth in 2026 compared to 2025.
- Main emerging markets and developing countries, including Brazil, China and Nigeria, likely to experience lower GDP growth in 2026.
- 2026 likely to bring a Trade-to-GDP Multiplier of 1 and a returning sense of parity between economic growth and trade activity.
- Negative impact on consumer spending on products directly impacted by US tariffs.
- Bunker Adjustment Factors not expected to experience high inflationary pressures in 2026.
Geopolitical disruption will be an ongoing theme in 2026, which plays into the macro-economic factors impacting ocean container shipping.
2026 through the lens of the International Monetary Fund (IMF):
Main advanced economies, such as US and EU, will do better in 2026 compared to 2025. However, the US will be worse off compared to 2023 and 2024, so the picture isn’t quite as positive.
Japan faces some headwinds, with GPD growth declining from 0.7% in 2025 to 0.5% in 2026.
Main emerging markets and developing countries, including Brazil, China and Nigeria, are likely to experience lower GDP growth in 2026 compared to 2025. On the other hand, India, Mexico, Saudi Arabia and South Africa should see stronger GDP growth in the year ahead.
Manufacturing activity across the globe is a mixed bag. The latest report from the US points to slowing business growth in September (three-month low), but a cooling in selling price inflation.
From the Eurozone, ‘manufacturing PMI output’ increased for the seventh month in a row in September, while the headline PMI fell back below the 50-threshold to a three-month low at 49.5. This is a small setback from August, which saw a three-year high for headline PMI (50.7) and a reading above 50 for the first time since 2023.
The outlook for Eurozone manufacturing is looking cloudy. Production is still growing, but the pace has been dragged down by domestic political turmoil in France. Hopes for an acceleration in growth are not justified as new orders dropped significantly in both Germany and France. (source: S&P Global)
Containerized European exports have fallen consistently since September 2021 – and the current outlook does not suggest a turnaround for that trend in 2026.
The macro-economic and container trade relationship
Generally, economic growth and activity is the main driver of demand for containerized goods, but that relationship is not what it used to be.
After many years of seeing the ‘Trade-to-GDP multiplier’ trending lower, 2024 and 2025 were off-trend and exceptionally strong. Looking ahead, 2026 is likely to bring a Trade-to-GDP Multiplier of 1 and a returning sense of parity between economic growth and trade activity.
The exceptional drivers that have pushed ocean container demand higher in recent years have stabilized - or at least not expected to intensify further in 2026. In particular, the uncertainty around supply chain resilience (ie, Red Sea) and a geo-political environment (ie, tariffs) that can appear unfriendly to international trade on a regional and global scale are now known disruptions that should not cause market shocks in the same way they have done previously.
Regional considerations
While the overall ‘Trade-to-GDP multiplier’ is above 1 in 2025, there are wide differences from one import region to another. In particular EU and US have a significant impact on global trade and therefore also the Trade-to-GDP Multiplier figure.
Ocean container demand has been driven by global geo-political uncertainty (Middle East and US) and uncertainty attached to the war between Ukraine and Russia and beyond.
European imports stand out, growing between 5.8% year-on-year in 2023 and 8.5% year-on-year in 2025 (first 7 months) – against GDP growth between 0.5% and 1% in the Euro Area in those respective periods.
American imports have been on a stop-go-stop-go cycle, seemingly detached from GDP growth between 2%-3% in 2023-2025. For the US in particular, there are question marks around inflation in 2026.
Data shows a negative impact on consumer spending on products directly impacted by US tariffs. Categories including furniture and home furnishings, sporting goods, bookstores and general merchandise stores are hit the most. This demonstrates there is no one-size-fits all strategy for shippers – it very much depends on their sector..
Bunker price and oil futures
Bunker prices have fallen since their 2022 peaks and, while still elevated from the level seen in 2019-2021, the downward trend is clear.
Based on prices in main bunkering hubs like Singapore and Rotterdam, the significant peaks for Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) were in Q4 and Q3 2023 at USD 687 per MT and $617 per MT respectively. For Heavy Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO), Q3 2023 was the spike for both locations, at $430 per MT in Singapore and $453 for Rotterdam.
Bunker Adjustment Factors (in whichever form they may take) should not experience high inflationary pressures in 2026 on the back of this outlook and overall falling trend since the 2023 spike - unless geopolitical events offset the current balance of the bunker fuel market.
"One of the intriguing outcomes of the massive volatility of recent years is that it has severed the relationship between container shipping demand and the macro factors of economic growth and activity.
"Container demand in 2025 has been driven by panic and uncertainty in the wake of geo-political events rather than underlying macro economics. With big questions over consumer spending in the US in 2026, many shippers will have uncertainties over the volumes of goods they will be importing.
"It is vital shippers retain flexibility in their freight contracts to allow them to increase or decrease volumes as required while also managing freight spend effectively. Carriers must adapt networks and freight forwarders must act with agility when offering services to shippers in need of options."
Peter Sand
Chief Analyst, Xeneta