2026 Ocean Outlook
Shippers have been battered and bruised in 2024 and 2025 due to trade wars and geo-political conflict. However, the tables are starting to turn in shippers' favour, so 2026 could be a year to reimagine freight procurement and build greater resilience in supply chains.
2024 was a year framed by the Red Sea conflict, while 2025 will be remembered for the carnage caused by tariffs and the US-China trade war, so ocean container shippers could be forgiven for looking ahead to 2026 with trepidation.
Shippers would be right to enter 2026 with eyes fully open, but many of the key pain points for the year ahead are largely known and set to stabilize (or at least not get much worse).
Take the Red Sea conflict as an example. Majority of ships are still sailing around the Cape of Good Hope, but the disruption has stabilized in 2025 to the extent freight rates are falling back to the pre-Red Sea crisis levels of December 2023.
We could possibly say the same about the US-China trade war, which has caused mayhem in global supply chains in 2025. There will inevitably be further tariff curveballs in 2026, but unlikely to the extent we have seen in 2025.
Shippers may not like the aggressive tariff policy of President Trump, but this is now a known disruption.
Painting this picture makes 2026 seem like a one-sided bet, but that is a dangerous position to take.
The lights on the geo-political dashboard are still flashing red and, as we have seen in recent years, trade is used as a weapon of war.
USTR port fees will be in effect in 2026 targeting China operated and built ships, while there is an arm wrestle between the US and China over control of global shipping infrastructure, most notably at the Panama Canal.
China has also recently passed legislation to allow countermeasures against any nation it believes is acting against its national trade interests.
The US-China trade war may only be getting started…
What does this mean for shippers in 2026?
The forecast is for 3% growth in ocean container shipping demand in 2026. With a record orderbook for new vessels and expected fleet growth of 3.6% - on top of the existing overcapacity - 2026 should play out more in shippers’ favor.
Market fundamentals are stacked against the carriers and freight rates are expected to continue to fall in the remainder of 2025 and into 2026.
Ocean container freight rate forecast 2026:
Baselines used in forecast:
- Forecast uses a baseline of full quarter average freight rates in Q3 2025.
- Pre-Red Sea Crisis baseline is full quarter average freight rates in Q4 2023.
- Pre-Covid-19 baseline is full quarter average freight rates in Q4 2019.
- Forecast is based on no large-scale return of Red Sea transits in 2026.
- Forecast is based on data and market intelligence in October 2025. Geo-political and economic developments have potential to significantly impact forecast.
Forecast:
- Global average spot rates to fall -25% full year 2026.
- Global average long term rates to fall -10% full year 2026.
- Full year 2026 average spot rates to fall within 2% of pre-Red Sea Crisis levels.
- Full year 2026 average long term rates to fall 20% below pre-Red Sea Crisis levels.
- Full year 2026 average spot rates to fall within 5% of pre-Covid-19 levels.
- Full year 2026 average long term rates to fall within 20% of pre-Covid-19 levels.
On 4 October, average spot rates from Far East to US East Coast and US West Coast were up just 6% and 2.3% respectively compared to 1 December 2023 (pre-Red Sea). Into North Europe and Mediterranean, they are holding a little stronger at +12% and +18%, but the direction of travel is clear.
This is no time for shippers to relax. 2026 is a huge opportunity to bring greater agility and resilience into supply chains after the carnage of 2024 and 2025.
Shippers should be using data and intelligence to not only achieve a more attractive freight rate during 2026 contract negotiations, but to identify the carrier that offers the optimal service and resilience. That is why Xeneta was proud to announce the acquisition of ee-Sea in August this year.
The Xeneta Ocean Outlook 2026 includes ee-Sea data and intelligence on global schedules, transit time and reliability. This will support BCO procurement teams to manage freight contracts and suppliers based on service levels - not just cost - no matter what the market conditions.
Falling freight rates mean carriers are heading towards the same loss-making territory they were in back in Q3 and Q4 2023.
Carriers will do what they can to protect revenues – and they are extremely good at it – whether that means slow-steaming, idling and blanked sailings.
Shippers do not need to accept poor performance. Carriers will be fighting hard for volumes in 2026, so shippers should use data to identify service providers that deliver on their promises of better reliability, transit times and network resilience.
Shippers have been battered and bruised in recent years – 2026 could be the year to reimagine freight procurement and build greater resilience in supply chains.
They should not waste this opportunity.
Meet the authors:
Peter Sand
Chief Analyst
Xeneta
Emily Stausbøll
Senior Shipping Analyst Xeneta