2025 Air Outlook
Overview
The Xeneta 2025 Air Outlook categorises 2025 into five key themes, outlined below:
Uptick in traditional air cargo market
Growth will be supported by demand for semiconductors related to generative AI
“The AI wave will lift the recently-stagnant B2B airfreight market. But we do not expect a demand boost on the non-ecommerce tradelanes.”
Continued disruption in ocean container shipping
Red Sea conflict not likely to contribute to further demand growth in 2025, but threats still remain
“The Red Sea effect on the air freight market has plateaued and might even recede in 2025. This could provide a bit of breathing space for shippers, but the threat of further disruption remains given the geo-political climate.”
Robust e-commerce growth and increasing regulation
E-commerce projected to grow 14% annually until 2026
“A local phenomena, but impacting shippers around the globe. You better stay up to date on how airlines are developing their network as changes could tighten capacity in markets that have no direct link with e-commerce volumes."
Global air cargo supply and demand
Global air cargo demand outlook of +4 to 6% and capacity forecast of +3 to 4% year-on-year
“It is unlikely that the tight airfreight market of 2024 will ease in 2025. It would be wise to manage the expectations of your internal stakeholders that your transportation spend might be higher next year."
Wild cards and other emerging trends
Continued uncertainty and risk of disruptions in many corners of the globe
“Please return to your seat and fasten your seatbelt – we are entering an area with unpredictable turbulence. The best approach to a period of high uncertainty is to be alert to quantitative signals from the marketplace as it could avoid shippers over-reacting and creating a vicious circle of escalating rates."