2025 Air Outlook
When Xeneta released the 2024 Air Freight Outlook report 12 months ago, the market was set for a return of ‘classic seasonality’, finally leaving the chaos of the Covid-19 era behind.
What has transpired is yet another turbulent year - primarily due to the dramatic rise of e-commerce out of Asia and the impact of conflict in the Red Sea. With these market forces set to spill over into 2025, there is much to consider for the year ahead.
The continued rise of e-commerce
The appetite of consumers in the West for low-cost goods manufactured in Asia is seemingly only getting stronger. As such, readers should expect e-commerce demand to continue to grow in 2025.
That said, we must look at the impact of e-commerce demand growth at a global as well as regional level. Of course, increasing e-commerce volumes will be focused on ex-Asia corridors, but a key theme for next year could be the knock-on impact on trades in other regions if airlines shift capacity to drive revenue.
The extent of e-commerce growth will also be influenced by heightening political and regulatory intervention. While the rise of e-commerce has been dramatic, the real drama may be yet to come.
Red Sea conflict remains key factor
The 2025 Air Outlook will also consider how the ongoing Red Sea conflict continues to demonstrate the importance of air freight in global trade.
In brief, as the Red Sea crisis unfolded in December 2023, container ships began avoiding the Suez Canal en masse. This saw shippers turn to air freight, often as a last resort, to protect their supply chains.
Given the current geo-political tensions across the world, there will be further black swan events that cause shippers to shift cargo from ocean to air – the question is not ‘if’, but ‘when’ and “where”.
Growing maturity in market
If 2024 has taught us anything, it is to expect the unexpected and be ready to act decisively to meet emerging challenges.
The growing maturity in the market in 2024 has helped to maintain a level of stability during what could have been an extremely messy peak season. Air cargo is operating at full steam, but shippers and air freight vendors have established more proactive, data-driven relationships.
If 2025 brings further disruption, then it must be seen as a huge positive that these stronger relationships are in place. This is not to say next year will not be hugely difficult, but the industry has the best chance of overcoming these challenges by working together, rather than having winners and losers.
Themes to watch in 2025
This Xeneta 2025 Air Outlook report has been broken down into five key themes to provide the clearest understanding on how and why the market is most likely to develop in the year ahead:
1. Uptick in traditional air cargo market
2. Continued disruption in ocean container shipping
3. Robust e-commerce growth and increasing regulation
4. Global air cargo supply and demand
5. Wildcards and other emerging trends
For every risk, there is usually an opportunity – but you need data and market intelligence to manage supply chain risk and freight spend effectively.
Read on to improve your readiness for the 2025 air market.
Meet the authors:
Wenwen Zhang
Air Freight Analyst
Xeneta
Niall van de Wouw
Chief Airfreight Officer Xeneta